Cade Cavalli’s path to the top of the Washington Nationals’ rotation has been anything but straightforward. The Bixby, Oklahoma native spent three seasons at the University of Oklahoma, posting a 4.09 ERA across 100 innings before Washington selected him 22^nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft.

Cavalli quickly established himself as one of baseball’s better pitching prospects, earning a Futures Game selection in 2021 and entering 2022 ranked No. 19 overall by Baseball Prospectus. He made his major-league debut on August 26, 2022, but injuries would keep him from appearing in another MLB game for nearly three years. Cavalli finally returned in 2025 and made 10 starts over the final two months of the season, finishing with a 4.25 ERA.

That set the stage for 2026. Cavalli earned the Nationals’ Opening Day start and entered the season with an arsenal that looked noticeably different from the one he had featured earlier in his career. Most notably, a sweeper he began showing late in 2025 developed into one of his most effective weapons.

Cavalli’s curveball and sweeper gave hitters two distinct breaking ball shapes to account for. His curveball had good depth and was located on the edges well, while the Sweeper was able to create more swing-and-miss in the zone. The sweeper had similar depth as the curveball but with 7.5 more inches of horizontal break. Both pitches finished among MLB’s top 10 in run value at their respective pitch types.

The biggest development wasn’t that Cavalli possessed two high-level breaking balls. It was how increasingly willing he became to build his arsenal around them. As the season progressed, Cavalli reduced his fastball usage by six percentage points and leaned heavily on his breaking pitches. The adjustment coincided with his best stretch of the season. Over August and September, Cavalli went 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA with hitters striking out on the breaking balls 45 times in 99 plate appearances. Cavalli reached the 200-strikeout mark and established himself as one of the most effective starters in baseball. Cavalli’s breakout 2026 season ended with the ultimate vote of confidence from Washington as he was given a 4-year, $47 million contract to solidify the top of their rotation for years to come.

Cavalli’s final 2026 stats:
– G/GS 32, 13-5, 3.02 ERA, 169.2 IP, 148 H, 68 R, 57 ER, 48 BB. 200 K, 1.155 WHIP

References

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cavalca01.shtml

Five Starting Pitchers Adjusting Their Pitch Mix in July and August

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cade-cavalli-676917?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

*Cover picture via The Baltimore Banner

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