Stillwater Regional Preview & Scoreboard

The NCAA National Tournament gets started on Friday as the 16 regionals kick off around the country.

All three D1 schools in the Sooner State are in the tournament with OU and OSU both hosting regionals. ORU is in the Norman Regional as the #4 seed (the same seed that saw them make a deep run into the College World Series in 2023).

Let’s break down the Stillwater Regional for each team and try to get a sense of what might happen.

*All RPI related stats are via d1baseball.com.

Team Capsules

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Record: 40-17 (19-9 Big 12, 2nd Place)
RPI: 11; SOS: 28
Non Con RPI: 40; Non Con SOS: 131
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 11-12, Quad 2: 9-3, Quad 3: 8-0, Quad 4: 12-2
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .284, OBP .401, SLG .519, 111 HR, 435 RBI, 8.21 Run/Game; SB 47-60
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 4.06, WHIP 1.26, 4.65 Runs/Game; 10.96 K/Game, 3.28 BB/G

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record: 39-20 (16-8 Big 10, 2nd Place)
RPI: 28; SOS: 34
Non Con RPI: 26; Non Con SOS: 8
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 3-1, Quad 2: 15-12, Quad 3: 15-5, Quad 4: 6-2
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .289, OBP .392, SLG .455, 66 HR, 365 RBI, 6.76 Run/Game; SB 91-120
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 4.40, WHIP 1.26, 4.95 Runs/Game; 8.46 K/Game, 2.88 BB/G

Florida Gators

Record: 28-27 (13-17 SEC, T4 Eastern Division)
RPI: 29; SOS: 1
Non Con RPI: 53; Non Con SOS: 14
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 13-18, Quad 2: 2-6, Quad 3: 1-1, Quad 4: 12-2
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .272, OBP .381, SLG .514, 116 HR, 361 RBI, 6.96 Run/Game; SB 34-43
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 6.27, WHIP 1.56, 6.45 Runs/Game; 10.13 K/Game, 4.45 BB/G

Niagara Purple Eagles

Record: 38-15 (20-4 MAAC, T-1st Place)
RPI: 103; SOS: 293
Non Con RPI: 203; Non Con SOS: 293
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 1-1, Quad 2: 1-2, Quad 3: 9-4, Quad 4: 27-8
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .396, OBP ..410, SLG .478, 69 HR, 409 RBI, 8.42 Run/Game; SB 72-93
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 5.40, WHIP 1.68, 6.32 Runs/Game; 8.19 K/Game, 5.83 BB/G

Analysis

Unlike in their 2023 regional, Oklahoma State is the clear favorite to make it to the Supers. The Cowboys are playing some of their best baseball of the year coming into the regional winning the Big 12 Championship last week. They’ve been successful this year by having outstanding pitching. Brian Holiday has been a horse for the Pokes as Sam Garcia has been outstanding as well.

That doesn’t mean OSU can’t hit. The Cowboys hit 111 bombs this year and the top half of their lineup are as good as any team (Lane Forsythe, Carson Benge, Nolan Shubart, and Zach Ehrhard).

Nebraska is a solid team that has a stud in ace, Brett Sears as well as a stud in the lineup in Josh Caron. Sears has an ERA of 2.00 with 97 K and 18 BB in 99 IP. Caron is batting .320 (.605 SLG), with 16 HR, and 65 RBI.

Being in the Big 10, the Huskers haven’t played many Quad 1 teams (only 4) which I found interesting. Could the lack of big time opponents play a role in facing Florida and/or OSU?

Florida being in the tournament at all is problematic to say the least. The Gators are 28-27 and where would they be without Jac Caglianone? Yes, he is the best player in college baseball, but the Gators are an average team at best with him. Caglianone has 17% of the Gators’ hits, 25% HR, 16% RBI, and 17% of their runs. He’s also their best pitcher and has the most starts (13), IP (62.0), and lowest batting average against (.217).

Niagara comes into the regional with a very nice season behind them, but at no where the level of a Big 12 or SEC school. The Purple Eagles have played only 5 of their 53 games against Quad 1 or 2 teams with the vast majority (35) against Quad 4 teams.

They have an interesting pitching thing going on. Maximillian Ramirez IV has the most starts at 15, but he only has 55 IP. Zach Cameron also has 55 IP (tied for the team lead), but those are in 23 appearances with NO starts. Cameron leads the team in ERA at 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.11.

Predicitons

I can’t help but think this is OSU’s regional to lose. For a #11 seed, the Cowboys’ regional seems to be easier than #9 Oklahoma. Niagara may be a nice story and win a game, but they have zero chance (unlike last year’s ORU squad). I do not believe in Florida past Caglianone and don’t think they should even be in the tournament. Nebraska is a nice team, but they aren’t on OSU’s level.

Game 1 (Nebraska vs Florida)
– This matchup comes down to who starts for each team and it should be Sears for Nebraska vs Caglianone for Florida. Both are aces and should go deep into the game. As much as I bagged on the Gators, I think they win this one on a late game bomb by Caglianone.

Game 2 (OSU vs Niagara)
– The question here is who starts on the bump for the Cowboys? I don’t usually like to see a non #1 or #2 starter go for a team in the first game of a regional because it is so important to get into the winners bracket, but I’d ride with Tommy Molsky here after his performance vs the Sooners last Sunday. With the depth of the Pokes’ bullpen, going with Molsky would save Holiday and Garcia for Saturday and Sunday. OSU wins big over the Purple Eagles.

Rest of the way
– Nebraska beats Niagara
– OSU beats Florida
– Nebraska beats Florida
– OSU beats Nebraska

I just don’t see OSU losing twice to this group of teams this weekend. The Pokes are playing really well right now and I don’t see it stopping now.

Schedule/Scoreboard

Friday, May 31
Game 1 – Nebraska 2 Florida 5
Game 2 – Oklahoma State 19 Niagara 7

Saturday, June 1
Game 3 – Nebraska 7 ~~Niagara 5~~
Game 4 – Florida 0 Oklahoma St 7

Sunday, June 2
Game 5 – ~~Nebraska~~ 11 Florida 17
Game 6 – Oklahoma St 2 Florida 5

Monday, June 3
Game 7 – Oklahoma St 2 Florida 4
(Times subject to change for TV purposes)

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