Norman Regional Preview & Scoreboard

The NCAA National Tournament gets started on Friday as the 16 regionals kick off around the country.

All three D1 schools in the Sooner State are in the tournament with OU and OSU both hosting regionals. ORU is in the Norman Regional as the #4 seed (the same seed that saw them make a deep run into the College World Series in 2023).

Let’s break down the Norman Regional for each team and try to get a sense of what might happen.

*All RPI related stats are via d1baseball.com.

Team Capsules

Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 37-19 (23-7 Big 12, 1st Place)
RPI: 15; SOS: 7
Non Con RPI: 72; Non Con SOS: 5
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 10-6, Quad 2: 13-6, Quad 3: 6-5, Quad 4: 8-2
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .313, OBP .412, SLG .506, 68 HR, 414 RBI, 8.32 Run/Game; SB 91-115
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 5.22, WHIP 1.50, 6 Runs/Game; 9.20 K/Game, 4.45 BB/G

Duke Blue Devils

Record: 39-18 (16-14 ACC, 3rd Place Coastal Div)
RPI: 16; SOS: 22
Non Con RPI: 33; Non Con SOS: 229
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 13-12, Quad 2: 7-3, Quad 3: 6-0, Quad 4: 13-3
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .312, OBP .416, SLG .550, 112 HR, 457 RBI, 8.61 Run/Game; SB 44-60
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 4.55, WHIP 1.34, 4.95 Runs/Game; 10.35 K/Game, 4.53 BB/G

Connecticut Huskies

Record: 32-22 (17-4 Big East, 1st Place)
RPI: 38; SOS: 42
Non Con RPI: 47; Non Con SOS: 29
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 5-7, Quad 2: 5-9, Quad 3: 13-6, Quad 4: 9-0
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .276, OBP .376, SLG .469, 79 HR, 339 RBI, 6.69 Run/Game; SB 79-106
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 4.95 WHIP 1.44, 5.54 Runs/Game; 9.54 K/Game, 3.96 BB/G

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Record: 27-30-1 (13-15-1 Summit League, 4th Place)
RPI: 268; SOS: 291
Non Con RPI: 237; Non Con SOS: 188
vs RPI Quads: Quad 1: 1-4, Quad 2: 1-0, Quad 3: 4-11, Quad 4: 21-15-1
Team Offensive Stats: AVG .275 , OBP .374, SLG .404, HR 48, RBI 346, Run/Game 6.52; SB 60-77
Team Pitching Stats: ERA 5.56, WHIP 1.45 , Runs/Game 5.98; K/Game 8.10, BB/G 4.09

Analysis

The Sooners have been the antithesis of what they’ve been during the Skip Johnson era. In 2024, OU has been more about the offensive production vs the pitching and defense they’ve been known for in the past. They have a deeper line up and it shows in their slugging percentage. The Sooners love to hit doubles and triples and have four players with double digit home runs.

That is not to say the Sooners don’t have any pitching. Braden Davis was a 1st team All-Big 12 selection and Kyson Witherspoon was a 2nd team selection.

Duke looks like a tough team on paper. They love the long ball as evidenced by their 112 home runs vs OU’s 68 and UConn’s 79. However, that hasn’t resulted in that many more runs than the others as they averaged 8.61 runs/game to OU’s 8.32.

UConn comes into the Regional as the Big East regular season champions, but they went 0-2 in the conference tournament. While they are in the NCAA Tournament for the 6th season in a row and won a Regional just two seasons ago, this year’s team just doesn’t seem to have the same “juice” as other Husky teams in the past.

ORU was having a bad season and were in danger of not even making the Summit League Tournament, but they won 8 of their last 11 conference games to make the tournament and eventually won it to make the field once again.

The Eagles have one of the best pitchers in the Regional in Jakob Hall, so that is something to watch.

Prediction

If you listen to the “experts” from around the country, this is Duke’s regional to lose. They are an offensive stalwart and their bullpen is a “weapon.”

However, when I look at them I don’t see it that way. Yes, they are a good team, but when you are over 50 games into the season, you are what your record says you are. The Blue Devils did win the ACC Tournament last week, but they went 16-14 in the regular season and finished 3rd in their division. On top of that, their record vs Quad 1 and Quad 2 games is a .571% compared to OU’s .657%.

So, while I agree that Duke is a very good team, there is a reason OU is the #9 overall seed compared to Duke being a regional #2 seed.

Game 1 (Duke vs UConn):
– I’m not going to pretend that I know a lot (or anything) about UConn baseball, but I don’t see them being on the same level as Duke. Duke wins going away.

Game 2 (OU vs ORU):
– The question is who will OU start on the mound? Past history says Skip will go with #1 Braden Davis, but this may be a spot where he can start Witherspoon and save Davis for the possibility of facing Duke. Either way, ORU will start Hall and that is enough for concern. Whether OU starts Davis or Witherspoon, I think the Sooners will wear down Hall to pull away in the late innings. OU advances

Rest of the way
– ORU beats UConn in the elimination game
– OU beats Duke in a close game
– Duke beats ORU in a rout in game 5
– OU wins the regional over Duke on Sunday night

I’m not trying to dismiss the fact that Duke is a really good team, I just think the Sooners are better than what the “experts” are saying they are. The last time the Sooners played, they got beat by OSU who pulled away late in the game. It is important that OU played in the Big 12 Championship without Bryce Madron. He will be back for the Sooners this weekend and that is a huge difference in their lineup.

Schedule/Scoreboard

Friday, May 31:

Game 1: UConn 4 Duke 1
Game 2: Oral Roberts 0 Oklahoma 14

Saturday, June 1:

Game 3: Duke 6 ~~Oral Roberts 2~~
Game 4: UConn 4 Oklahoma 1

Sunday, June 2:

Game 5: ~~Duke~~ 3 Oklahoma 4
Game 6: UConn 4 Oklahoma 6

Monday, June 3:

Game 7: Oklahoma 1 UConn 7

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